Which of the following is a drawback of scenario planning?

• A. Costly and inaccurate.
• B. Cultural distortion (people get carried away).
• C. Risk of self-fulfilling prophecy (manifest).
• D. Many scenarios may not occur.

Answer: (A)

Scenario planning helps leaders test strategies against a range of plausible futures, but its real drawback lies in resources and accuracy. Building and maintaining multiple credible scenarios requires significant time, data, facilitation, and expert input, so it can be costly. Even with careful construction, the scenarios are educated guesses about uncertain futures, not precise predictions, meaning they can be inaccurate. This combination—high cost and imperfect foresight—makes cost and accuracy the most fundamental drawback.

Cultural distortion can occur if participants become overly attached to dramatic scenarios, but that’s a risk that can be mitigated with governance and checks. The risk of self-fulfilling prophecy exists when actions push outcomes toward a scenario, yet this is a consequence rather than the core drawback. And while many scenarios may not occur, that is an expected feature of exploring multiple futures, not a primary flaw in the technique.